Tag Archives | Forecasting

National Reproductive Health Commodities Forecasting Bangladesh 2017-2021

In 2012, SIAPS supported the Directorate General of Family Planning (DGFP) in conducting a five-year (2012-2016) forecasting exercise for reproductive health commodities and built the technical capacity of DGFP officials to manage the forecasting processes and analyze the FP2020 indicators pertinent to stock availability. SIAPS also assisted DGFP in forming the multi-stakeholder Forecasting Working Group (FWG) to annually review needs and facilitate data-informed procurement decisions. The FWG uses data collected through information management platforms and conducts quantification exercises on the basis of the consumption of RH/FP commodities. The 2012 forecasting exercise helped DGFP avoid redundant procurement decisions by using good-quality logistics data and saved money. However, after 2016, it had to be updated with the latest data. Therefore, at USAID’s request, SIAPS worked with FWG and developed another five-year (2017-2021) forecast of RH commodities to enable evidence-based contraceptive procurement decisions. The goal is to optimize a data driven procurement system and minimize losses through expiry from overstocking.

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Quantification of Family Planning Commodities for April 2016 to March 2019, Swaziland

A family planning quantification exercise was conducted with technical assistance from SIAPS and participation of all major stakeholders. The objective was to produce a forecast and supply plan for the period April 2016–March 2019. The results of this quantification exercise will be used to plan, mobilize, and secure financial resources for the quantification period. The quantification exercise results will assist in establishing the quantities of commodities to be procured in each quarter. Two forecasting methods—demographic/morbidity and consumption—were employed for this exercise, with the demographic/morbidity method as the main method. The demographic/morbidity method was used for all FP commodities except condoms and emergency contraceptive oral pills. Forecast requirements were established for the nation, public sector, and private sector. However, procurement requirements were established for the public sector only. The quantification included requirements for male condoms for the prevention of STIs, including HIV, in addition to FP.

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Quantification of Health Commodities: RMNCH Supplement

This guide will assist program managers, service providers, and technical experts when conducting a quantification of commodity needs for the 13 reproductive, maternal, newborn, and child health commodities prioritized by the UN Commission on Life-Saving Commodities for Women and Children.

These 13 commodities have diverse characteristics: some are new products that are in the process of being introduced at scale and some are products that have been in use for many years but are under-used or not available when needed or in the recommended formulation. However, one commonality shared by all is the need to increase access to these commodities among the women and children who need or want them. A major component of access is availability and to ensure availability, accurate estimates of supply requirements are needed. At the global level, this information can inform both donors’ plans for procurement and manufacturers’ plans for production. At the national level, this information is also essential for budgeting, resource mobilization, and planning for procurement and supply chain operations.

Currently, accurate estimates of need are unavailable for many of the 13 commodities at either the global or national levels. Therefore, many of the Commission’s work plans have included activities related to collecting this information through market sizing or quantification exercises. The Commission’s 2012 report also notes that improved quantification efforts are needed as part of supply chain improvement. This guide provides practical guidance on estimating the quantities of supplies needed by programs as part of a national quantification exercise. While this guidance was developed primarily for public sector and NGO programs, the methodology presented could also be relevant for forecasting commodity needs for the private sector.

This is the updated version of the guide, published in January 2016. The original was published in 2014. 

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Training on ForLab and Long-Term Forecasting and Supply Planning of HIV and AIDS–Related Lab Commodities in Cameroon: Technical Report

A middle-income country in Central Africa, Cameroon had an HIV prevalence of 4.3% in 2011 in the general population 15–49 years of age (2011 DHS). The number of HIV patients on antiretroviral treatment (ART) has grown from a few hundred in 2001 to 78,000 at the end of 2009 and to 131,531 at the end of 2013.

The goal of the Ministry of Health (MoH), along with National AIDS Control Program (Comité National de Lutte contre le Sida; CNLS), US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention/US President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (CDC/PEPFAR), US Agency for International Development (USAID)/PEPFAR, and the Centrale Nationale d’Approvisionnement en Médicaments et Consommables Medicaux Essentiels (CENAME) in Cameroon is to scale up prevention and comprehensive HIV and AIDS care and treatment. To achieve this goal, the MoH has identified the need to improve the current technical knowledge of quantification of HIV and AIDS commodities, specifically laboratory products.

The USAID Mission in Cameroon requested that the Systems for Improved Access to Pharmaceuticals and Services (SIAPS) Program provide technical assistance to Cameroon to strengthen coordination for quantification with key partners involved in supply chain management to ensure an uninterrupted supply chain for HIV and AIDS commodities through a consolidated and coordinated quantification mechanism. This paper reviews the key challenges encountered during quantification and recommendations made to improve the process in the future.

 

 

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Forecasting Exercise for the 13 Reproductive, Maternal, Newborn, and Child Health Commodities Prioritized by the UN Commission on Life-Saving Commodities for Women and Children

In September 2012, the United Nations Commission on Life-Saving Commodities for Women and Children released its recommendations for improving access to 13 priority commodities across the reproductive, maternal, newborn, and child health (RMNCH) continuum. These recommendations focused on developing markets, both local and global, for these commodities; strengthening national supply chains; and improving demand. One of the supply chain areas for these commodities that was identified as particularly weak was forecasting and supply planning. For several of these commodities, the data required to estimate need accurately are unavailable in many countries and national forecasts are based on unsubstantiated assumptions and often on data from past procurements.

The U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID)/Bangladesh requested assistance from the Systems for Improved Access to Pharmaceuticals and Services (SIAPS) Program, implemented by Management Sciences for Health (MSH), to address supply chain management issues related to essential medicines, especially tracer drugs (determined by Forecasting Working Group of the MOHFW) with maternal, newborn, and child health (MNCH) products. The aim of this comprehensive forecasting exercise was to help the Government of Bangladesh (GOB) and other key national stakeholders to improve the security of essential health medicines in the country, strengthen the distribution and management information systems in place, and build local capacity to strengthen health systems.

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Inventory of Tools for Maternal Health Supplies

The Maternal Health Technical Reference Team (MHTRT) was formed to address issues related to access to essential maternal health commodities, specifically oxytocin, misoprostol, and magnesium sulfate, and to support the United Nations Commission on Life-Saving Commodities (UNCoLSC) for Women and Children. MHTRT divided into multiple subgroups, one of which was the Tools Subgroup, tasked to compile an inventory of tools that would serve as a resource to countries interested in improving access to and use of maternal health medicines. The tools listed in the inventory include materials related to quantification and forecasting, use, and demand and availability.

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Quantification of Family Planning Commodities for January 2014 to December 2018

The Government of Swaziland (GOS) is committed to ensuring that reproductive health commodities are available to the people of Swaziland.  One of the pillars of family planning commodity security is the continuous and optimal availability of these commodities. With technical assistance from UNFPA and USAID-funded SIAPS, as well as the participation of all major stakeholders, the Ministry of Health connducted a quantification exercise with with the objective of producing a forecast and supply plan for the period 2014–2018. The results of this quantification exercise will be used in planning, mobilizing, and securing financial resources for the quantification period and for establishing estimated procurement requirements in the short term.

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Quantification of HIV and AIDS Commodities for April 2014 through March 2016, Swaziland

The Government of Swaziland (GoS) has made significant progress in addressing the HIV and AIDS epidemic through a series of strategic plans and frameworks. An important component of the plans and frameworks is the regular and systematic quantification of HIV and AIDS commodities to ensure the regular and uninterrupted supply of life-saving medicines.  This technical report details the quantification exercise carried out the government, which included antiretroviral medicines (ARVs) for antiretroviral therapy (ART), medicines for prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT), medicines for opportunistic infections (e.g., co-trimoxazole prophylaxis), medicines for isoniazid preventive therapy (IPT) such as isoniazid (INH), and medicines for Kaposi’s sarcoma.

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Antiretroviral and Sexual and Reproductive Health Commodity Quarterly Supply Planning Technical Report: Quarter 2

Each year, the Swaziland Ministry of Health’s Central Medical Store (CMS) conducts a one-year quantification exercise to budget for HIV commodities. In 2012/2013, using supply planning software developed by the United States Agency of International Development (USAID)-funded Systems for Improved Access to Pharmaceuticals and Services (SIAPS), the Ministry was able to save $US 6.1 million by avoiding extraneous procurement of antiretroviral (ARV) therapy commodities with no stock-outs occurring during this budget year. SIAPS’s Pipeline® Monitoring and Procurement Planning System (Pipeline monitors the status of product pipelines and procurement plans, providing information needed to ensure the regular and consistent stock of products at the program or national level.

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Antiretroviral and Sexual and Reproductive Health Commodity Quarterly Supply Planning Technical Report: Quarter 1

Swaziland’s Central Medical Store worked with SIAPS to carry out a one-year quantification exercise for HIV commodities that informed quantities and budgets required for FY 2013 through FY 2014.  SIAPS put into place a systematic process for supply planning using the Pipeline® Monitoring and Procurement Planning System (PipeLine), a software tool designed to help program managers monitor the status of their product pipelines and product procurement plans.

 

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